This is a good read by one of Bangkok's best foreign journalist, Shawn W Crispin. The article explains in-depth of the political situation which in turns affect the economy and ultimately the property sector albeit for the short to medium term.
Once-coherent forces are fragmenting in Thailand, promising to complicate standing political alliances while disintegrating others. As Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva strikes new conciliatory poses - including possible constitutional reforms and an amnesty for more than 100 banned politicians - the emerging realignment could ignite potent new sources of instability and foil his government's strategy to shore up its democratic mandate at new polls next year.
Officials and analysts are still weighing the significance of last month's violent anti-government street protests and the military's crackdown, which pitted forces aligned to exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra against Abhisit's coalition government and its presumed backers in the military, bureaucracy and royal Privy Council. Those clashes and the subsequent assassination attempt of an anti-Thaksin protest leader have opened new political fissures that have the potential to spark more upheaval and violence.
The main wildcard, the red-shirted United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) protest group, has fractured at the top after last month's crackdown and temporary detainment of its main leaders, according to a second-line UDD leader. Different co-leaders have in recent weeks forwarded divergent strategies for future resistance, with some promoting new mass protests while others have advocated a more radical move towards armed struggle.
Diplomats familiar with the situation say that UDD co-leader Veera Musikapong was instrumental in steering the situation away from a violent crescendo on April 13 when he agreed to disperse the remaining 3,000 protestors after the military had encircled the UDD's main protest site at Government House in Bangkok. The same diplomats claim that certain UDD protesters on the site's perimeter were that day armed with homemade explosive devices, or ping pong bombs, which if launched could have easily escalated the situation towards retaliatory violence.
While UDD co-leaders Veera, Jatuporn Prompan, Weng Tojirakarn and Nattawut Saikuae have all called for new peaceful protests, analysts suggest that Thaksin is now looking for a new UDD leadership. Thaksin's close aides and former Communist Party of Thailand members Prommin Lertsuridej and Phumtham Wechayachai were floated in recent media reports as possible candidates. If so, the UDD would appear to be splitting into two distinct groups, with those favoring peaceful protests less aligned to Thaksin and those calling for armed struggle more clearly in the exiled former premier's inner circle.
One diplomat suggests that while the UDD lost the battle, by mobilizing 100,000 protesters on April 8 it successfully advanced a rallying call against entrenched inequality and injustice in Thai society. The question, he suggests, will be whether the protest movement can break away from Thaksin's funds and symbolism and become a positive force for political reform, or instead intensify its destabilizing course of disruption and violence aimed solely at toppling Abhisit's government and restoring Thaksin's power.
Exiled motivations
Thaksin's lurch towards brinksmanship was at least partially motivated by the breakdown in secret negotiations that had been mediated from behind the scenes by a European interlocutor. Those talks, which included elements of the military and monarchy, according to a Thaksin ally familiar with the situation, aimed to return Thaksin's US$2.2 billion in frozen funds in exchange for a vow he would not re-enter politics.
In an apparent bid to re-establish his diminished negotiating leverage, he has publicly accused certain privy councilors of orchestrating the 2006 coup and recently alleged in an interview with the Financial Times that King Bhumibol Adulyadej had foreknowledge of the putsch. Before that, Thaksin is also known to have lost touch with Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, reaffirming the notion that neither is the monarchy a static institution with its relationships.
According to diplomats and a well-placed palace source, Thaksin had on several occasions after returning from exile in 2008 met with Vajiralongkorn in Bangkok via his trusted associate, Sino Thai Engineering and Construction Company chairman Anutin Charnvirakul. The two had also met on at least two separate occasions when Thaksin was in exile in London after the 2006 coup and Vajiralongkorn spent nine months of calendar 2007 in Europe.
It was lost on few seasoned observers that the UDD's April 12 assault on Prime Minister's Office secretary general Nipon Prompan's car at the Ministry of Interior had particular symbolic value because of the senior bureaucrat's known close ties to Vajiralongkorn, including formative years together at a European boarding school.
Some diplomats have interpreted that assault and the UDD's public criticisms of top privy councilors as a strong signal that Thaksin and his allies could complicate the impending royal succession, where Vajiralongkorn is the heir apparent to the throne. At the same time, many believe Thaksin may have overstepped the mark by mentioning the widely revered 81-year-old Bhumibol in recent political remarks to the foreign media.
Meanwhile, the April 17 assassination attempt against media mogul and People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protest group leader Sondhi Limthongkul could result in a more dramatic break of previously presumed aligned political forces. Sondhi has publicly accused military officials with links to Thaksin of masterminding the failed attack, which was launched by assault rifle-toting assassins.
Sondhi told this correspondent while in hospital that he believed army commander General Anupong Paochinda, army chief of staff General Prayuth Chan-ocha and Defense Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan were bent on seizing political power from Abhisit. Anupong has denied any foreknowledge or involvement in the plot on Sondhi, though he has acknowledged that bullet shells found at the crime scene were Thai army issue.
Sondhi has criticized the same military officials in recent press interviews and in an apparent shift suggested that the PAD's "new politics" reform agenda is in some ways similar to the political change advocated by the UDD. PAD street protests paved the way for the 2006 military coup that ousted Thaksin's government and the movement was notably dormant during the military appointed administration that ruled in 2006 and 2007.
A second incarnation of the PAD last year paralyzed the workings of two Thaksin-aligned governments, which eventually fell through controversial court decisions, including a December 2 ruling that disbanded the then ruling People's Power Party. Sondhi cloaked his yellow-shirted protest movement in royal symbolism and first drew crowds in late 2005 by accusing then prime minister Thaksin of disloyalty to the Thai crown - charges Thaksin has denied.
Loyal royals
By taking hard aim at Anupong and Prayuth, both established royalists who served in Queen Sirikit's Royal Guard Infantry Regiment, diplomats and analysts wonder whether Sondhi will continue to mobilize defense-of-the-monarchy themes at any future protests, including ones that potentially target top military officials or royal advisors.
Sondhi's Thai language daily newspaper openly supported the candidacy of former 3rd army division commander General Saprang Kalayanamitr over Anupong in the run-up to the 2007 military reshuffle that eventually elevated Anupong to the army's top spot. Anupong has since consolidated his power over important command positions, but has faced criticism from certain hardline military elements, and echoed by Sondhi, that he has failed to effectively purge Thaksin's lingering influence.
Sondhi stirred a hornet's nest last year when, from his protest stage, he accused Anupong of receiving money from Thaksin to pay for his children's school fees. He did the same over the weekend when he alleged that palace insider Viriya Chavakul, who has publicly defended Thaksin's loyalty to the crown, played a role in the assassination plot against Sondhi. She strongly denied the charges and the palace quickly moved to correct press reports that referred to Viriya as Queen Sirikit's lady-in-waiting.
Questions also surround the apparent fall from favor of top royal advisor and Sondhi ally Piya Malakul, who according to one royal insider hasn't attended functions at the palace for over a month. Piya is known to be close to Queen Sirikit and was often the lone advisor to accompany Bhumibol when he previously took outdoor walks around his seaside palace in Hua Hin.
One palace insider says that Piya was the top advisor who suggested that Queen Sirikit attend the funeral services of a PAD protester killed during a melee with police last October 7, indicating to some tacit royal backing for the PAD. Piya was also accused by Thaksin of playing host to a dinner at his residence in May 2006 where the coup against his government was allegedly planned. Piya has strongly denied the charges, claiming no military officials were present at the meeting.
The PAD has already indicated it will launch new street protests against any constitutional reforms that lead to an amnesty of the 110 politicians - with the notable exception of the criminally charged Thaksin - banned from politics for five years by a military appointed Constitution Tribunal in May 2007. The risk for Abhisit and the Democrats is that the PAD lumps together their coalition government with the military, as UDD leaders had from their protest stage.
Military matters
That could be an easier argument to make after Abhisit's declaration of a state of emergency and the military's willingness under Anupong to mop up the UDD after refusing to implement similar decrees announced last year under two separate Thaksin-aligned governments. The breakdown of Abhisit's personal security detail showed clearly that his government lacks command control over key sections of the national police force.
Thaksin was a former police official and is believed to still hold sway over certain senior officers. Many junior-level police officials attended UDD rallies while off duty, with some even changing into their red shirts while still at their respective police stations, according to a source familiar with the situation. That's raised concerns in certain government circles that Thaksin supporters' call to arms is no idle threat.
Government spokesman Panitan Wattanayakorn said that the premier's inner circle now viewed the UDD's attack on Abhisit's car on April 12 at the Ministry of Interior as a well-coordinated assassination attempt. He says a review of wide-angle security film of the incident shows that men with masks and guns were positioned on the perimeter of the attack, apparently waiting for frontline protesters to break through the car's bulletproof windows.
With police neutrality in doubt, army chief of staff Prayuth has taken charge of Abhisit's personal security and his top aides have been appointed bodyguards. Some diplomats here believe that Prayuth's role in the efficient suppression of the UDD riots may have saved Abhisit's government, which was teetering after UDD protesters stormed the venue of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit meeting with world leaders in attendance.
The military has over Abhisit's five-month tenure sometimes marched to its own drummer, though by most reports it stepped in line when he declared a state of emergency and insisted the crackdown would result in no casualties. Military insiders say the top brass are wholly cognizant of how unpopular another coup would be and prefer the political status quo as long as their budgets keep flowing and a conflict in the south involving Muslim insurgents is left under the military and not moved to civilian command.
Panitan says that while the military's budget has risen substantially since the 2006 coup, overall outlays are still only 1.8% of gross domestic product, well below the global average for maintaining a modern fighting force of 300,000 men. Panitan, a former professor of security affairs who has trained several senior ranking military officers, has according to diplomats emerged as one of Abhisit's main point men in liaising with the military and deciphering its moves and motivations.
New trajectory
What's clear is that the UDD's unexpected show of force has put Thai politics on a new trajectory. The ruling Democrats are now widely expected to dissolve parliament and call for new elections by early to mid-2010, coinciding with a forecast up-tick in the economy, which is now set to contract by 5% this year.
One Democrat party deputy leader suggests the government is already starting to plot vote-getting strategies for new polls, including possible plans to redistribute land designated as national parks to over 2.2 million villagers who still hold title deeds, and another to grant Thai citizenship to over 2 million people in limbo situated in border areas.
The Democrats also clearly hope to capitalize on a newfound populism, including a 2,000-baht (US$57) handout scheme for over 11 million low-income earners around the country. Ramped up fiscal spending designated to cushion the blow of the global economic crisis started disbursements last month and politicians of coalition partner Bhum Jai Thai party are expected to be major beneficiaries through the ministries they control.
The Bhum Jai Thai party's behind-the-scenes leader, Newin Chidchob, is now allegedly bidding to place his political associates onto the board of state-run and now loss-making Thai Airways, according to people familiar with the situation. Any number of those policies could open the coalition to damaging corruption allegations lodged by the Thaksin-aligned opposition Peua Thai party, similar to the land reform scandal that eventually brought down a Democrat-led government in 1994.
One diplomat read the Ministry of Finance's recent announcement to cut 200 billion baht from the 2010 budget because of revenue shortfalls also as a political strategy to keep Bhum Jai Thai at bay and on side until new polls are held, with a wink that bigger-ticket infrastructure projects would be initiated by a newly elected government. That avowed big spending could be enough to lure several Peua Thai politicians to defect to Bhum Jai Thai, as several were reportedly poised to do before the UDD ramped up its protests.
That's exactly the sort of old-fashioned politicking both the UDD and PAD say they stand firmly against and could provide fodder for more destabilizing demonstrations in the months ahead. But if Abhisit successfully oversees constitutional reforms and a mass amnesty, which with shifting political allegiances could benefit his coalition as much as the Thaksin-aligned Peua Thai, those fractured street movements may yet represent the fringe of an emerging new political order.
Source: Asia Times Online 6 May 2009
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