Dr Somkid Jatusripitak has, incredibly, seen his chances of becoming prime minister slip away. Before the landmark ruling of the Constitution Tribunal on May 30, he was a favourite horse in the race to become the next prime minister.
He had all the political support he would have needed to go into the next general election. The top members of the military backed him, so did the remnants of the Thai Rak Thai Party, industrialists, bankers, stockbrokers and top businessmen. This is not to mention support from rural voters in the North and Northeast, who were still spellbound by the populist policy package of the old Thai Rak
Abhisit Vejjajiva (shown in photo above) looked like he would continue to be the head of the opposition bloc for a long time to come. But Somkid's fortunes would not carry him that far.
So what actually went wrong?
Nobody - not even General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the Army chief - knew in advance about the shocking rulings of the Constitution Tribunal against the Thai Rak Thai Party. A week before the ruling, most people thought Thai Rak Thai might not be dissolved and that only some members linked to election fraud would be punished.
The worst case scenario, many felt, would see Thai Rak Thai dissolved, but the majority of its executive members who had nothing to do with the election fraud spared of any punishment. Then they could settle down to prepare for the next election. Thai politics would have completed another vicious cycle.
As it turned out, the Constitution Tribunal handed down harsh verdicts that amounted to capital punishment. The Thai Rak Thai Party was not only dissolved, all of its 111 executive members, including Thaksin Shinawatra, Somkid, Somsak Thepsuthin, Pinij Charusombat, and the like, were also barred from politics for five years.
With the Constitution Tribunal's rulings, General Sonthi's plans for a political career after the election also face total ruin. The grand plan was to support Somkid as the next prime minister. Somsak would form the Matchima Party, while Somkid would head the Thammathipatai Party. Somsak is very close to Pinij, leader of the Wang Phayanak faction. While General Sonthi had political dealings with Somsak, General Winai Phatriyakul, secretary-general of the Council of National Security, reportedly worked behind the scenes with Pinij. General Sonthi and General Winai are very close to each other.
If Somkid were to have won the election and become prime minister, the key Council for National Security personalities might then have assumed ministerial positions in security or defence areas in order to call the shots. Somkid was a favourite choice for prime minister because he was sellable, domestically and internationally. Of all 111 executive members of Thai Rak Thai, very few of them had the charisma to become prime minister. Big businesses lined up to support Somkid, including the Saha Group, CP Group, the banks and the brokerage community.
Big business still holds the Democrats in contempt because they had a bad experience with them during the economic crisis. The bankers, in particular, will not forgive the Democrats over the implementation of the tough capital adequacy rules prescribed by the Bank for International Settlements. Only a handful of Thai banks managed to survive that painful episode. The Thai middleclass has yet to embrace the Democrats wholeheartedly, although they hate Thaksin.
But then all hell broke loose. The Constitution Tribunal's rulings destroyed that grand plan. This might explain why General Sonthi came out shortly afterward to hint that there could be a possibility of the Thai Rak Thai executives receiving a pardon. His comment triggered a furore from those who held that any attempt to pardon the politicians amounted to a threat to the efficacy of the judicial branch.
General Sonthi had to back off a few days later, but this game of pardoning the politicians would not end easily. These politicians would try harder in the next parliament to get a pardon.
Will General Sonthi continue to see eye to eye with Prime Minister General Surayud Chulanont again after this stormy episode? We are not sure yet. But General Sonthi is facing a dilemma. Once the election is held, he will retire and he will have nowhere else to go. As a coup leader, he needs strong political ground to stand on to guarantee his survival and also to prevent a Thaksin comeback. Surayud should not be too worried because he can return to the Privy Council, where he has served before.
With the removal of Somkid from the chessboard, there remains Abhisit as the only charismatic candidate left for the premiership.
The Democrats escaped the harsh verdict from the Constitution Tribunal, however it is premature to make any early predictions. There will be new parties sprouting up, while the Thai Rak Thai Party is breaking apart.
It will be interesting to watch any new charismatic faces coming forward to challenge Abhisit, who by the way will have the daunting task of capturing the Northeast. If he is to make it, he'll need to work very hard to win the Northeast, which is the equivalent of capturing California, Texas and Florida in US politics in order to win the White House. And that is not going to be easy.
Source: The Nation Newspaper
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